Which jobs will be most affected from 2022 to 2031?

As we enter the next decade, the landscape of job opportunities is increasingly poised to undergo remarkable transformations driven by economic growth and advances in technology. 

In this article, we delve into the realm of 2022 to 2031 projections for job openings, all considering both expansion demand due to economic growth and replacement demand stemming from retirements and other factors.

‍

‍

From economic growth to the creation of new jobs

‍

Over the next ten years, our economy is expected to be poised to generate approximately 2.8 million new employment opportunities, with an average annual increase of about 284,000 jobs. This gradual increase is equivalent to an average annual growth rate of 1.4%. It is important to keep in mind that while this economic expansion is expected to drive the creation of new jobs, it will also be influenced by the evolution of the labor force, which over time could slow the rate of job growth.

‍

‍

Technology as a leader in the labor market

‍

As we move further into the digital age, technological advances are at the forefront of labor market discussions. The rapid integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and automation into various industries has led to debates about its impact on jobs. However, historical evidence reassures us by showing that technology has often been a net generator of jobs, leading to changes in industries and occupations rather than outright destruction. For example, the evolution of the Canadian economy from agriculture to manufacturing to services over the last century underscores the adaptability of the workforce to changes in technological environments.

‍

Experts anticipate that automation may not result in widespread job elimination over the next two decades, but this statement is intriguing; instead, specific tasks within occupations are more likely to be automated, especially those involving repetitive and routine activities, for example, telephone operators who have been replaced by a digital operator, or Loblaw and Walmart supermarkets, which have automated checkout machines, such as self-service systems and self-checkout machines. Occupations with a higher risk of partial automation tend to be concentrated in roles that require lower levels of education and are at the lower end of the pay scale. This trend was observed during the introduction of computers, where some tasks became automated with the consequent result that led workers to acquire new skills and adapt to the changing demands of their roles.

‍

‍

Artificial intelligence (AI) is gaining ground

‍

In recent years, the scope of AI's impact has expanded beyond routine tasks, now encompassing non-routine cognitive and interaction functions. For example, AI is improving language proficiency in report writing and customer services. While there are concerns about job supplanting, some experts argue that AI could complement workers, especially those with middle- and lower-level skills, thus encouraging higher job performance. 

‍

‍

Occupations and their projection from 2022 to 2031 (retirements)

‍

Below is a table showing a projection of the top 10 occupations with the highest number of retirements for the period 2022 to 2031.

‍

Top 10 occupations with the highest number of retirements, 2022-2031

Note 1: Asterisked occupations constitute those grouped into 4-digit occupations (including 3-digit occupations that are considered a group of 4-digit occupations).

Note 2: occupations in bold type are those in which at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.

Source: ESDC COPS PROJECTIONS 2022.

‍

‍

Thriving industries and emerging trends

‍

Several industries are projected to experience solid employment growth over the next decade, exceeding 1.5% per year. Currently, these industries often share attributes such as high labor intensity, human-centric roles, and substantial growth in production. 

Below are some of the key factors driving employment growth in these areas:

‍

• Arts, entertainment and recreation: the demand for services such as concerts, theaters, museums and sporting events accumulated by the pandemic is expected to drive growth in this sector.
• Education: the return of foreign students and positive demographic changes are likely to boost enrollment in colleges and vocational schools.
• Mining/oil/gas: higher oil prices and the federal government's strategic initiatives will revitalize support activities.
• Information and communication technologies: rapid innovations in ICT require continuous improvements in infrastructure for businesses.
• Healthcare: Aging populations and recovery from delayed treatment will drive demand for healthcare services.
• Manufacturing and transit: growth in manufacturing shipments and urban transit systems will generate employment opportunities.
• E-commerce and logistics: the continued growth of e-commerce is driving demand for postal, courier and warehousing services.
• Green economy: the transition to green practices will increase employment in the building trades and technology sectors.
• Professional services: the growing demand for advice on several fronts, including environmental regulations and technology, will create job opportunities.

‍

‍

Job occupations and their projection from 2022 to 2031 (job supply)

These industries, characterized by their resilience and adaptability, are poised to shape the employment landscape for years to come.

Below is a table with the highest proportion of vacant positions in 2022-2031: 

‍

Top 10 occupations with the highest labor force participation rate, 2022-2031

Note 1: Occupations with an asterisk are 4-digit groupings (including occupations that are considered 4-digit groups of occupations).

Note 2: occupations in bold are those in which at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.

Source: ESDC COPS PROJECTIONS 2021.

‍

‍

Retirement factor favors the supply of new jobs

‍

In addition to economic growth, job openings are also influenced by replacement demand due to retirements and other factors. Approximately 3.9 million positions are projected to open up as a result of retirements from 2022 to 2031. This continuing process of the baby boom generation remains a significant contributor to this replacement demand, and as a result, retirements are expected to make up about 80% of replacement demand, reflecting a pattern similar to the previous decade.

‍

Certain occupations, such as management roles and healthcare professions, exhibit higher retirement rates due to the older age profile of the workforce. As the workforce ages, retirements are expected to increase and peak in the mid-2020s before gradually declining. This wave of retirements will lead to a shift in job opportunities, creating alternatives for younger generations to take on leadership roles and specialized positions.

‍

‍

The overall picture of job vacancies is positive

‍

In total, 7.74 million job openings are projected between 2022 and 2031, comprising both new positions driven by economic growth and existing positions arising from replacement demand. Of these, about 2.8 million jobs will result from expanding economic activity, while more than 4.9 million will arise due to replacement needs, with retirements accounting for a significant share.

‍

The evolving employment landscape emphasizes the growing importance of postsecondary education and management roles. It is estimated that approximately 71% of new jobs resulting from economic expansion will be in occupations requiring postsecondary education or management skills, and the proportion of these occupations within the overall employment landscape is expected to increase and eventually reflect the changing demands of the modern workforce.

‍

In addition, the impact of technology and automation on job content is evident. Occupations involving non-routine tasks, interpersonal skills and cognitive functions are projected to experience significant growth, highlighting the need for adaptable and versatile skill sets.

 Below are the top ten occupations with the highest number of offers in the 2022-2023 period:

‍

‍

Top 10 occupations with the highest number of job openings, 2022-2031

‍

Note 1: Asterisked occupations constitute those grouped into 4-digit occupations (including 3-digit occupations that are considered a group of 4-digit occupations).

Note 2: occupations in bold type are those in which at least 50% of their workers were women in 2021.

Source: ESDC COPS PROJECTIONS 2022.

‍

‍

Canada's economic growth is assured

‍

As we move through the decade from 2022 to 2031, the labor market is poised for significant changes driven by economic growth, technological progress and changing demographics. The interaction of these factors will influence the creation of new positions and the transformation of existing roles. While automation and AI raise questions about the future of work, historical trends and expert opinions suggest that job creation will outpace replacement. Industries such as healthcare, education and technology are expected to flourish, offering a wealth of opportunities for those equipped with the right skills. 

Moreover, as younger generations prepare to take the place of retirees, the dynamics of the labor market are poised to evolve even further. Adapting to these changes and embracing continuous learning will be essential for individuals to thrive in this ever-changing landscape. Meanwhile, as we anticipate the future with a mix of excitement and curiosity, the key to success lies in preparing for the opportunities ahead.

‍

If you would like to explore the Canadian educational system and evaluate different institutions in the province of your interest, you can write to us at education@immilandcanada.com or schedule a vocational counseling appointment.

Learn about our complete immigrant services at Immilandcanada.com, here you will find assistance with work, education, translation, settlement and migration; we have a specialized team under CICC regulation ready to guide you.

‍

With love,

‍

Immiland