What can Express Entry candidates expect for the rest of the year?

This year, there has been a lot of movement through the Express Entry system. The Canadian government introduced category-based selection rounds, representing new opportunities. In contrast, points for job offers, which could benefit up to 200 points, were eliminated, and immigration priorities began to shift steadily.

The result as of today: candidates for permanent residency (PR) now face significant variations in cut-off scores and in the number of invitations issued. All of this raises expectations about what will actually happen with their processes.

To this end, today we will make a comparison between the government's migration plan and what has happened in 2025, based on internal IRCC (ATIP) documents and the official results of the rounds held between January and September 2025. Attention to the figures and official notes, let's get started!

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Invitation Plan (ITA) for 2025

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According to IRCC's internal ATIP Notes, the following plan is broken down:

• French-speaking target: 18,500 ITAs in the first months of the year to reach 8.5% outside Quebec.

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Categories:

• Health: ~8000 ITA (15%).
• Specializedtrades: ~3300 ITA (8%).
• Education (new category): ~3000 ITA (5%).

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Program:

• Canadian Experience Class (CEC): rounds with higher CRS scores (500+).
• 2026 alignment goal: the majority of ITAs issued in the second half of 2025 support the 2026 admission goals.

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Actual rounds: January-September 2025

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During this period, there was variety in the number of ITAs and scores:

• Francophones (Feb-Mar, Aug, Sept): more than 21,000 ITAs issued, with cut-off scores as low as 379.
• Health: several rounds with a total of ~7500 ITA, CRS between 470-510.
• Skilled trades: only 1250 ITAs so far, with a CRS of 505.
• Education: already above plan, with ~3500 ITAs issued, CRS between 462-479.

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Projections: September-December 2025

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Francophones:

• Initial goal exceeded (18,500).
• 1-2 additional rounds (~2000 each) are expected.
• Estimated CRS: 470-490.

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Health:

• Very close to the target of 8000 (currently ~7500).
• One more round (~500-1000 ITA).
• CRS estimate: 475-485.

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Specialized trades:

• Below target (1250/3300).
• Two more rounds (~1000 each) are expected.
• Estimated CRS: 500-510.

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Education:

• Surpassed the target of 3000 (currently ~3500).
• Likely 1-2 additional rounds (~1000 each).
• CRS estimate: 455-470.

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What do these figures mean for the candidates?

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The number of ITAs issued, rounds and estimated scores mean that:

• Francophones: remain the best positioned group thanks to lower scores.
• Health and education professionals: they are in high demand, but with strong competition.
• Specialty trades: have had more rounds in the last quarter of the year and with strategic opportunities.
• CEC: requires high scores and Canadian experience plus language proficiency.

The Express Entry rounds in 2025 are managing a real and necessary balance of economic improvements, francophone integration and meeting 2026 targets.

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Recommendations for successful implementation in 2025

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In the last quarter of 2025, smaller, category-driven rounds are expected to close out the year. Therefore, it is recommended that candidates have their complete documentation ready, raise their CRS score with the leveling and certification of their higher education and language proficiency; in addition to considering provincial options to increase their points.

At Immiland Canada, we have CICC regulated consultants who can assist you in your process. Evaluate your immigration profile to find out which program you qualify for or schedule a consultation here today. 

In closing, a practical tip: review the Ministerial Instructions for each round. Cut scores and categories can change quickly, and the status of your profile is key to receiving an invitation at this time. Evaluate your profile for free.

Thank you very much for reading, see you in the next blog!

With love,

Immiland Canada